What this means for real estate?
The increasing residential asset prices have given rise to a potential bubble, causing stagnation over the past two quarters. From a pan-India perspective, new launches in the residential sector have dwindled over 2014, as developers have been looking at disposing of existing stocks to generate cash flow. With project funding becoming expensive and buyers showing a lower propensity to purchase in view of unfavourable prices, developers have found it difficult to generate cash and service their debts. This state of affairs is also likely to create greater risks for lenders.
While infrastructure has been hit by rising input costs and delayed approvals, asset prices for residential real estate have recovered and grown over the past two years.
Commercial real estate
From an investment perspective, it makes more sense to opt only for leased assets in the current scenario. Larger investors should consider the domestic private equity funds being raised, which are looking at investing in commercial assets.
While Gurgaon remains the most favoured destination of office occupiers, Noida has also performed well. However, while Gurgaon has seen a good mix of IT and corporate occupiers, Noida still remains primarily driven by IT. Over a 1-3 year horizon, we are likely to see an improvement in demand and absorption as economic conditions in the US and Western Europe are showing signs of stabilising. This is likely to increase outsourcing business into India, which will result in improved performance of the office sector. Indian domestic corporates are also likely to continue contributing towards non-IT demand.
Residential real estate
Some of the emerging corridors around NCR which are currently suitable for residential investment are:
Sohna: Lower residential rates, the next development corridor, and it benefits from the KMP Expressway and proximity to Gurgaon. Neemrana: Venue of upcoming industrial and infrastructural developments to drive residential demand.
Yamuna Expressway: Excellent infrastructure, benefits from expressway as the node to fuel future city expansion, upcoming freight and warehousing developments, and the cheapest residential apartments in NCR.
Noida: Affordable housing – low entry points, considerable pent-up demand and future appreciation potential.
Faridabad: A relative gold mine, keeping in mind the current land and residential prices and the infrastructural developments which are likely to put this area on the fast track of growth.
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